Technosignatures Longevity and Lindy's Law

{
  "by": "belter",
  "descendants": 0,
  "id": 40245937,
  "score": 1,
  "time": 1714730460,
  "title": "Technosignatures Longevity and Lindy's Law",
  "type": "story",
  "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020"
}

{
  "author": "A. Balbi",
  "date": "2024-02-20T12:00:00.000Z",
  "description": "The probability of detecting technosignatures (i.e. evidence of technological activity beyond Earth) increases with their longevity, or the time interval over which they manifest. Therefore, the assumed distribution of longevities has some bearing on the chances of success of technosignature searches, as well as on the inferred age of technosignatures following a first contact. Here, we investigate the possibility that the longevity of technosignatures conforms to the so-called Lindy’s law, whereby, at any time, their remaining life expectancy is roughly proportional to their age. We show that, if Lindy’s law applies, the general tenet that the first detected technosignature ought to be very long lived may be overruled. We conclude by discussing the number of emitters that had to appear, over the history of the Galaxy, in order for one of them to be detectable today from Earth.",
  "image": "https://arxiv.org/static/browse/0.3.4/images/arxiv-logo-fb.png",
  "logo": "https://logo.clearbit.com/arxiv.org",
  "publisher": "arXiv.org",
  "title": "Technosignatures longevity and Lindy’s law",
  "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020v1"
}

{
  "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020v1",
  "title": "Technosignatures longevity and Lindy's law",
  "description": "The probability of detecting technosignatures (i.e. evidence of technological activity beyond Earth) increases with their longevity, or the time interval over which they manifest. Therefore, the...",
  "links": [
    "https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020v1",
    "https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020"
  ],
  "image": "https://static.arxiv.org/icons/twitter/arxiv-logo-twitter-square.png",
  "content": "<div>\n  <div>\n    <p>\n      </p><h2>Physics &gt; Popular Physics</h2>\n    <p></p>\n    <p><strong>arXiv:2405.00020</strong> (physics)\n    </p>\n<div>\n                <p>View a PDF of the paper titled Technosignatures longevity and Lindy's law, by A. Balbi and 1 other authors</p>\n    <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.00020\">View PDF</a></p><blockquote>\n            <span>Abstract:</span>The probability of detecting technosignatures (i.e. evidence of technological activity beyond Earth) increases with their longevity, or the time interval over which they manifest. Therefore, the assumed distribution of longevities has some bearing on the chances of success of technosignature searches, as well as on the inferred age of technosignatures following a first contact. Here, we investigate the possibility that the longevity of technosignatures conforms to the so-called Lindy's law, whereby, at any time, their remaining life expectancy is roughly proportional to their age. We show that, if Lindy's law applies, the general tenet that the first detected technosignature ought to be very long lived may be overruled. We conclude by discussing the number of emitters that had to appear, over the history of the Galaxy, in order for one of them to be detectable today from Earth.\n    </blockquote>\n  </div>\n    <div>\n      <h2>Submission history</h2><p> From: Claudio Grimaldi [<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://arxiv.org/show-email/2e29789f/2405.00020\">view email</a>]      <br />    <strong>[v1]</strong>\n        Tue, 20 Feb 2024 22:19:01 UTC (133 KB)<br />\n</p></div>\n  </div>\n<div>    <div>\n      <p><a></a>\n      <span>Full-text links:</span></p><h2>Access Paper:</h2>\n      <ul>\n  <p>\nView a PDF of the paper titled Technosignatures longevity and Lindy's law, by A. Balbi and 1 other authors</p><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.00020\">View PDF</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://arxiv.org/src/2405.00020\">TeX Source</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://arxiv.org/format/2405.00020\">Other Formats</a></li></ul>\n    </div>\n        <div><p>\n    Current browse context: </p><p>physics.pop-ph</p>\n    </div>\n<p>\n    <span>export BibTeX citation</span>\n</p>\n<div>\n  <p></p><h3>Bookmark</h3><p></p><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http://www.bibsonomy.org/BibtexHandler?requTask=upload&amp;url=https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020&amp;description=Technosignatures%20longevity%20and%20Lindy%27s%20law\" title=\"Bookmark on BibSonomy\">\n    <img src=\"https://arxiv.org/static/browse/0.3.4/images/icons/social/bibsonomy.png\" alt=\"BibSonomy logo\" />\n  </a>\n  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://reddit.com/submit?url=https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.00020&amp;title=Technosignatures%20longevity%20and%20Lindy%27s%20law\" title=\"Bookmark on Reddit\">\n    <img src=\"https://arxiv.org/static/browse/0.3.4/images/icons/social/reddit.png\" alt=\"Reddit logo\" />\n  </a>\n</p></div>  </div>\n<div><p>\n    <label>Bibliographic Tools</label></p><div>\n      <h2>Bibliographic and Citation Tools</h2>\n      <div>\n          <p><label>\n              <span></span>\n              <span>Bibliographic Explorer Toggle</span>\n            </label>\n          </p>\n        </div>\n    </div>\n    <p>\n    <label>Code, Data, Media</label></p><div>\n      <h2>Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article</h2>\n    </div>\n      <p>\n      <label>Demos</label></p><div>\n        <h2>Demos</h2>\n      </div>\n      <p>\n      <label>Related Papers</label></p><div>\n        <h2>Recommenders and Search Tools</h2>\n      </div>\n      <p>\n      <label>\n        About arXivLabs\n      </label></p><div>\n            <h2>arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators</h2>\n            <p>arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.</p>\n            <p>Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.</p>\n            <p>Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://info.arxiv.org/labs/index.html\"><strong>Learn more about arXivLabs</strong></a>.</p>\n          </div>\n    </div>\n</div>",
  "author": "",
  "favicon": "https://arxiv.org/static/browse/0.3.4/images/icons/favicon-16x16.png",
  "source": "arxiv.org",
  "published": "",
  "ttr": 65,
  "type": "website"
}